Climate Classification, Hydrological, Agricultural, and Assessment of Climate Change Impacts Analysis in City of Pangkalpinang, Bangka Belitung Island Province, Indonesia
Kata Kunci:
Klasifikasi Iklim, Dampak Perubahan Iklim, Agri-iklim, Analisis Hidrologi, Analisis PertanianAbstrak
Penelitian ini menginvestigasi klasifikasi iklim, kondisi hidrologi dan pertanian, serta menilai potensi dampak perubahan iklim di Kota Pangkalpinang, Provinsi Bangka Belitung, Indonesia, menggunakan data meteorologi harian selama 65 tahun (1959-2024). Klasifikasi iklim menunjukkan jenis Af (Hutan Hujan Tropis) dominan menggunakan metode Köppen-Geiger (terjadi dalam 56 dari 66 tahun) dengan presisi tinggi (0,89-1,0), dan jenis C1'As (mesotermal perhumid) mendominasi menurut Thornthwaite (64 dari 66 tahun). Analisis tren menggunakan regresi linear dan uji Mann-Kendall menunjukkan peningkatan suhu yang signifikan (sekitar +0,02°C/tahun) dan perubahan pola curah hujan, dengan rata-rata curah hujan tahunan sebesar 2289,84 mm dan indeks konsentrasi curah hujan tahunan (PCI) sebesar 8,924, menunjukkan distribusi curah hujan yang agak tidak teratur. Analisis hidrologi menunjukkan rata-rata evapotranspirasi potensial (PET) sebesar 0,284 mm, kandungan kelembaban tanah 99,751 mm, limpasan permukaan rata-rata sebesar 4,577 mm, dan 51 kejadian risiko banjir tahunan, menunjukkan rezim yang lembab. Kebutuhan air tanaman rata-rata (CWR) adalah 4,857 unit relatif, dan kami mengamati korelasi positif yang kuat (r=0,969) antara indeks kepuasan kebutuhan air (WRSI) dan kebutuhan air tanaman. Validasi model menunjukkan kesalahan rata-rata kuadrat (RMSE) antara 0,1-0,5 dan menunjukkan klasifikasi Thornthwaite yang stabil bahkan dengan gangguan, dan analisis data deret waktu mengungkapkan variabilitas parameter dan pergeseran suhu sekitar tahun 2000. Temuan ini menekankan perlunya strategi adaptasi iklim lokal di Pangkalpinang.
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Hak Cipta (c) 2025 Ramadhani ., Ahmad Said
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